Dear Veterans, I accepted a thank you on your behalf.

To all veterans pulling alert today, standing watch, filling supply orders, or who have not gotten a “thank you” lately, please know your service and sacrifice is appreciated. I again accepted a thank you on your behalf.

This summer, my cousin Sonia and her quilting group honored me with the gift of a gorgeous quilt. They gave it to me in appreciation for my service in the U.S. Air Force so many years ago. I pulled underground alert on the plains of South Dakota to keep the Evil Empire at bay. I had a small part holding back the Soviet bear.

Photos here don’t do full justice to the quilt, which I shall long cherish. My wife and I recently moved into our new home, so I have not yet be able to properly hang in on a wall.

For all those who have served, please know this lovely quilt expresses the appreciation felt by a group of quilters in Minnesota for all those who have stood on the front lines, kept the supplies moving, preparing those going to line service, or otherwise helped keep the U.S. military machine working.

To all of you, I say thank you.

A hearty thank you to all of you from my cousin, her group, and many more grateful Americans you will never meet.

I extend a hearty thank you to my cousin and her group.

Jim Ulvog

About that 95% effective vaccine… (part 1)



Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The Covid vaccination is 95% effective against infection.

That is what we were told by every public health official and media outlet in order to persuade us to get the shots.

95%.

It has been so effective we should get a booster. And another booster. And now there is a brand new fifth booster, because the previous four worked so well.

This is the first in a series of posts explaining the effectiveness statements were not only false, but were known to be false at the time.

We start with a survey of how incredibly effective the vaccine has been in 2022:

CDC director

10/31/22 – Center for Disease Control – Update on CDC Director and COVID-19 – I cannot describe this more lastingly than merely quoting the straight line offered by the CDC press release:

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Jim Ulvog

Remember what our so-called leaders did. Especially our religious leaders.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

It is imperative we remember what our political, public health care, and education leaders did to us and our children during the Covid shutdowns. Please remember what their sycophantic worshippers in most media outlets did as well.

Remember the economic, social, and educational damage they caused.

Remember the devastation to our spiritual, physical, and emotional health.

Remember especially those religious leaders who were thrilled to close churches, stop communion, and end fellowship. Some leaders tried to minister to their flock while they reluctantly followed mandatory government dictats. Some faithful pastors decided today is not the day for prison.

Others however, were thrilled to aggressively follow every whim of political and health-sector officials whose visible desire was to shut down worship.

My family worshipped in a church where local leadership was quite pleased to shut down tight. Regional and national leadership was oh so ready to bend the knee.

Remember those religious leaders who bowed down to Caesar (first century AD), or the Emperor (1500s), or the governor (today). Also remember those whose focus was bowing to Christ instead of Caesar, the Emperor, or the governor.

(This discussion cross-posted to my other blogs because it is time to stand for religious and political freedom.)

A recent thread on Twitter compiled a partial list of what these leaders did. Please remember.

Part 1:

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Jim Ulvog

Bison in Theodore Roosevelt National Park

Photo by James Ulvog.

Saw lots and lots of buffalo on a visit to the north unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park a week ago. (Yeah, yeah, they are actually American Bison, but I am still gonna’ call ’em buffalo.)

These photos cross-posted from my other blog, Outrun Change, so you can see I am again posting. Hope to get back to regular discussions here and across all my blogs.

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Jim Ulvog

Relocation to North Dakota.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

In June of this year, I moved my accounting firm to Williston, North Dakota. 

My wife and I have been wanting to be near our son and his family. So the simple reason for the move is “chasing the grandkids.” It is also good to be out of California, with increasing congestion, skyrocketing cost of living, and deteriorating economy.

With the wonders of technology, I will be able to serve my clients just as easily from Williston, North Dakota as from Alta Loma, California. Only visible change on the website will be the mailing address.

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Jim Ulvog

Revised federal mileage rates for last half of 2022.

The IRS has changed the mileage rates for the last half of 2022.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Starting July 1, 2022, the standard mileage rates will be:

  • 62.5 cents per mile for business use, which is up from 58.5 cents for the first half of 2022 and up from 56 cents for 2021.
  • 22 cents per mile for medical and moving, which is up from 18 cents for the first half of 2022 an dup from 16 cents for 2021.
  • 14 cents per mile for services provided to charitable organizations, which rate was set by Congress in legislation.

Rates were published in Notice 2022-13 – Optional Standard Mileage Rates.

Jim Ulvog

15% increase in 8 months. Another entry for the Same-Meal-at-the-Same-Restaurant price index.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The size of a bite which inflation is taking out of every meal is accelerating for those of us who are not living at the top of an ivory tower fortress inside the D.C. Beltway.

Got lunch from Jimmy John’s yesterday. They fix up yummy sandwiches. 

I had turkey on French bread with provolone cheese. Split a large sandwich with my dining partner.  ‘Twas delish’.

Price was $14.99.  Yeah fifteen bucks for just the sandwich, to go, so nothing for the greedy state tax machine.

Last August the exact same sandwich was $12.99. Up an even $2.00.

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Jim Ulvog

Same-Meal-at-the-Same-Restaurant price index increases 12% in 5 months. Oh, and a less tasty meal.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

For another data point of inflation experienced by consumers, let’s consider the holiday meal at a restaurant here in Rancho Cucamonga.  Consider the contrast with the official CPI measurements.

This is third discussion on the same-meal-at-the-same-restaurant price index.

One of the nicer restaurants (perhaps nicer is only on my scale) in our area is called Mimi’s. They offer a limited selection of meals on holidays which are nicer than their usual entrée. Today two of the five main choices were either ham or turkey with identical side dishes of mashed potatoes, cornbread dressing, green beans, choice of three appetizers, and choice of three desserts.

On Thanksgiving Day 2021 the meal cost was $25. On Easter day 2022 the meal cost was $28.

That is a $3 increase.

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Jim Ulvog

“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

TheChristianhymns

Last line of this classic hymn of the faith is

Oh, the sweet joy this sentence gives,

“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

To sooth your heart, listen to the lyrics. Ponder anew the wonderful comfort of knowing your Redeemer is alive.

He is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Another rendition, with pipe organ and brass:

King of Glory Lutheran Church, ELCA – Dallas, Texas – Sanctuary Choir and Brass
Jim Ulvog

He is risen! He is risen indeed!

North Stoneham and Bassett parish

Today we celebrate the most important day in the history of the world.

Easter.

We remember the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead.

On the preceding Friday, he was brutally executed by the Roman government at the insistence of the religious leaders. His sacrifice on the cross paid the penalty for sins which we earned and fully deserve.

Was that sacrifice on our behalf accepted by God the Father? Are we pardoned from our sins?

The Sunday morning resurrection proves that yes, the sacrifice by the Messiah was accepted by God the Father as payment in full for your sins and my sins.

As a result, those who have faith in His atoning death are declared free of sin (crazy as that seems, it is true). We will be welcomed into heaven to spend eternity in glory.

Praise be to God!

More ways to enjoy this glorious day:

From Steve Gibb:

Another rendition of this hymn, from Presbyterian Church of Novato with Katy Hatfield (organ), Walter Burge (vocals), & Siri Louie (vocals) on April 4, 2021.

Thanks be to God!

Jim Ulvog

Ulvog CPA firm passes peer review inspection.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

I am pleased to announce my firm has passed its most recent peer review. 

The inspection report, which has a grade of “pass”, is for the year ending May 31, 2021.  The report is dated December 15, 2021 and was accepted by the state Peer Review Committee on April 7, 2022.

This is the seventh peer review my firm has completed and I am thrilled to share that every time I have received the highest rating possible.

For those not familiar with the peer review process in the accounting profession, this is a self-regulatory program that evaluates the quality of a CPA firm’s quality control over performing audits, reviews, and compilations.  It looks at the processes inside a firm and also looks in detail at select engagements to ensure the audits, reviews, and compilations were performed in accordance with professional standards.

The concept is good procedures evidenced by good work on those specific engagements under inspection will result in an overall system that will routinely produce high quality results.

Jim Ulvog

The Fried-Chicken-Meal index continues to show severe inflation.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Introducing the fried-chicken-meal inflation index. 

Previous discussions on this blog have featured the consumer price index measuring prices paid by urban consumers, the producer price index measuring input prices paid by manufacturers and producers, along with the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the favorite measure of inflation at the Federal Reserve Bank.

Now we have the fried-chicken-index.

This newest inflation measure is based on the price charged in Rancho Cucamonga, California (including tax) for a three-piece chicken tenders meal with one side, biscuit, and medium soda as prepared by the Colonel from Kentucky.

According to this index, the price of the meal went up 4.7% in the first quarter of 2022.

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Jim Ulvog

Preliminary list of people who owe us apologies for the damage they caused. First round of admissions to overcounting Covid deaths.

Counting Covid deaths using CDC methodology. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now that Covid infection rates have collapsed in the United States, our political and public health ‘leaders’ are backtracking on the steps they took which caused so much damage.

Before they take credit for a virus variant running its course and fading away, we need to be pay attention to all those who caused trauma by their actions and who had their thumb on the scales when quantifying the impact of the virus.

Articles for your consideration today:

  • CDC “accidentally” overcounted Covid deaths.
  • Massachusetts overcounted Covid deaths by including deaths from any cause whatsoever if a person had an infection diagnosis within 60 days prior to death.
  • An incomplete list of people and organizations who owe us profuse apologies for the damage they have caused.

3/18/22 – Reuters – CDC reports fewer COVID-19 pediatric deaths after data correction – CDC reduced their tally of deaths caused by Covid by 72,277. This includes 416 pediatric fatalities.

That is a 24% drop in the number of children they count as having died because of Covid. With the revised tally of 966,575 deaths in total that means they reduced the total count by 7.5%.

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Jim Ulvog

Producer Price Index up 0.8% in February 2022 with January revised upward from 1.0% to 1.2%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in February.   The previously reported 1.0% rise in January was revised to 1.2%. So that is actually a cumulative increase of 1.0% in February

Keep in mind the prior monthly increases PPI are revised as needed. This is in contrast to CPI which is not revised.

In February, core PPI, without food, energy, & trade, was up 0.2% in February with January revised downward from 0.9% to 0.8%.

For background, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a description of PPI:

“The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that measure price change from the purchaser’s perspective. Sellers’ and purchasers’ prices may differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.”

So the PPI measures prices received by producers for their goods and services. Those costs roll into the goods and services you and I buy as end consumers.

This means the increases in wholesale prices, which show a lot of inflation, are heading our way as those increases work themselves into the CPI.

Graph at the top of this post shows the monthly price change for total demand with separate line for total demand goods and total demand services.

With revisions, the year over year increase in PPI is 10.0% in February and January, which is only a slight increase from 9.9% in December and November and the increases were just under 9.0% for October back to August.

Take a look at the year over year change in final demand and core change which means without food, energy, and trade.

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Jim Ulvog

High inflation rates likely to continue for remainder of 2022.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

It is looking like we are going to see high inflation numbers for a while, probably least all of 2022.

Mentioned yesterday the CPI increase of 7.9% in a year hit a 40 year record.

Treasure Secretary’s expectations.

In an interview on 3/10/22, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the inflation numbers are going to be uncomfortable for the rest of 2022.

Fox Business is one source that covered her comments on 3/10/22: Treasury Sec. Yellen contradicts Psaki: Likely to see another year of ‘very uncomfortable’ inflation.

The money quote:

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Jim Ulvog