Wow, I sure don’t understand what is happening. The headline unemployment rate declined 2.2% in June. That is a big drop.
At the same time, new claims for unemployment were 6.01 million for the four weeks ending 6/27/20. See previous post: New unemployment claims barely decline in week ending 6/27/20.
(How to put that information together? Well, the reason I’m blogging is to put my thoughts into writing, which forces me to think deeper in order to sort out what is going on around me.)
The U-3 unemployment rate in last four months with change from previous month:
That is a 2.6% drop in two months after a 10.3% rise in April.
Graph above shows key unemployment rates since the start of 2019.
This discussion will be posted at several of my blogs.
For longer term perspective, consider the rates since before the Great Recession: