Jim Ulvog

Relocation to North Dakota.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

In June of this year, I moved my accounting firm to Williston, North Dakota. 

My wife and I have been wanting to be near our son and his family. So the simple reason for the move is “chasing the grandkids.” It is also good to be out of California, with increasing congestion, skyrocketing cost of living, and deteriorating economy.

With the wonders of technology, I will be able to serve my clients just as easily from Williston, North Dakota as from Alta Loma, California. Only visible change on the website will be the mailing address.

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Jim Ulvog

Revised federal mileage rates for last half of 2022.

The IRS has changed the mileage rates for the last half of 2022.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Starting July 1, 2022, the standard mileage rates will be:

  • 62.5 cents per mile for business use, which is up from 58.5 cents for the first half of 2022 and up from 56 cents for 2021.
  • 22 cents per mile for medical and moving, which is up from 18 cents for the first half of 2022 an dup from 16 cents for 2021.
  • 14 cents per mile for services provided to charitable organizations, which rate was set by Congress in legislation.

Rates were published in Notice 2022-13 – Optional Standard Mileage Rates.

Jim Ulvog

15% increase in 8 months. Another entry for the Same-Meal-at-the-Same-Restaurant price index.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The size of a bite which inflation is taking out of every meal is accelerating for those of us who are not living at the top of an ivory tower fortress inside the D.C. Beltway.

Got lunch from Jimmy John’s yesterday. They fix up yummy sandwiches. 

I had turkey on French bread with provolone cheese. Split a large sandwich with my dining partner.  ‘Twas delish’.

Price was $14.99.  Yeah fifteen bucks for just the sandwich, to go, so nothing for the greedy state tax machine.

Last August the exact same sandwich was $12.99. Up an even $2.00.

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Jim Ulvog

Same-Meal-at-the-Same-Restaurant price index increases 12% in 5 months. Oh, and a less tasty meal.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

For another data point of inflation experienced by consumers, let’s consider the holiday meal at a restaurant here in Rancho Cucamonga.  Consider the contrast with the official CPI measurements.

This is third discussion on the same-meal-at-the-same-restaurant price index.

One of the nicer restaurants (perhaps nicer is only on my scale) in our area is called Mimi’s. They offer a limited selection of meals on holidays which are nicer than their usual entrée. Today two of the five main choices were either ham or turkey with identical side dishes of mashed potatoes, cornbread dressing, green beans, choice of three appetizers, and choice of three desserts.

On Thanksgiving Day 2021 the meal cost was $25. On Easter day 2022 the meal cost was $28.

That is a $3 increase.

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Jim Ulvog

“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

TheChristianhymns

Last line of this classic hymn of the faith is

Oh, the sweet joy this sentence gives,

“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

To sooth your heart, listen to the lyrics. Ponder anew the wonderful comfort of knowing your Redeemer is alive.

He is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Another rendition, with pipe organ and brass:

King of Glory Lutheran Church, ELCA – Dallas, Texas – Sanctuary Choir and Brass
Jim Ulvog

He is risen! He is risen indeed!

North Stoneham and Bassett parish

Today we celebrate the most important day in the history of the world.

Easter.

We remember the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead.

On the preceding Friday, he was brutally executed by the Roman government at the insistence of the religious leaders. His sacrifice on the cross paid the penalty for sins which we earned and fully deserve.

Was that sacrifice on our behalf accepted by God the Father? Are we pardoned from our sins?

The Sunday morning resurrection proves that yes, the sacrifice by the Messiah was accepted by God the Father as payment in full for your sins and my sins.

As a result, those who have faith in His atoning death are declared free of sin (crazy as that seems, it is true). We will be welcomed into heaven to spend eternity in glory.

Praise be to God!

More ways to enjoy this glorious day:

From Steve Gibb:

Another rendition of this hymn, from Presbyterian Church of Novato with Katy Hatfield (organ), Walter Burge (vocals), & Siri Louie (vocals) on April 4, 2021.

Thanks be to God!

Jim Ulvog

Ulvog CPA firm passes peer review inspection.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

I am pleased to announce my firm has passed its most recent peer review. 

The inspection report, which has a grade of “pass”, is for the year ending May 31, 2021.  The report is dated December 15, 2021 and was accepted by the state Peer Review Committee on April 7, 2022.

This is the seventh peer review my firm has completed and I am thrilled to share that every time I have received the highest rating possible.

For those not familiar with the peer review process in the accounting profession, this is a self-regulatory program that evaluates the quality of a CPA firm’s quality control over performing audits, reviews, and compilations.  It looks at the processes inside a firm and also looks in detail at select engagements to ensure the audits, reviews, and compilations were performed in accordance with professional standards.

The concept is good procedures evidenced by good work on those specific engagements under inspection will result in an overall system that will routinely produce high quality results.

Jim Ulvog

The Fried-Chicken-Meal index continues to show severe inflation.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Introducing the fried-chicken-meal inflation index. 

Previous discussions on this blog have featured the consumer price index measuring prices paid by urban consumers, the producer price index measuring input prices paid by manufacturers and producers, along with the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the favorite measure of inflation at the Federal Reserve Bank.

Now we have the fried-chicken-index.

This newest inflation measure is based on the price charged in Rancho Cucamonga, California (including tax) for a three-piece chicken tenders meal with one side, biscuit, and medium soda as prepared by the Colonel from Kentucky.

According to this index, the price of the meal went up 4.7% in the first quarter of 2022.

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Jim Ulvog

Preliminary list of people who owe us apologies for the damage they caused. First round of admissions to overcounting Covid deaths.

Counting Covid deaths using CDC methodology. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now that Covid infection rates have collapsed in the United States, our political and public health ‘leaders’ are backtracking on the steps they took which caused so much damage.

Before they take credit for a virus variant running its course and fading away, we need to be pay attention to all those who caused trauma by their actions and who had their thumb on the scales when quantifying the impact of the virus.

Articles for your consideration today:

  • CDC “accidentally” overcounted Covid deaths.
  • Massachusetts overcounted Covid deaths by including deaths from any cause whatsoever if a person had an infection diagnosis within 60 days prior to death.
  • An incomplete list of people and organizations who owe us profuse apologies for the damage they have caused.

3/18/22 – Reuters – CDC reports fewer COVID-19 pediatric deaths after data correction – CDC reduced their tally of deaths caused by Covid by 72,277. This includes 416 pediatric fatalities.

That is a 24% drop in the number of children they count as having died because of Covid. With the revised tally of 966,575 deaths in total that means they reduced the total count by 7.5%.

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Jim Ulvog

Producer Price Index up 0.8% in February 2022 with January revised upward from 1.0% to 1.2%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in February.   The previously reported 1.0% rise in January was revised to 1.2%. So that is actually a cumulative increase of 1.0% in February

Keep in mind the prior monthly increases PPI are revised as needed. This is in contrast to CPI which is not revised.

In February, core PPI, without food, energy, & trade, was up 0.2% in February with January revised downward from 0.9% to 0.8%.

For background, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a description of PPI:

“The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that measure price change from the purchaser’s perspective. Sellers’ and purchasers’ prices may differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.”

So the PPI measures prices received by producers for their goods and services. Those costs roll into the goods and services you and I buy as end consumers.

This means the increases in wholesale prices, which show a lot of inflation, are heading our way as those increases work themselves into the CPI.

Graph at the top of this post shows the monthly price change for total demand with separate line for total demand goods and total demand services.

With revisions, the year over year increase in PPI is 10.0% in February and January, which is only a slight increase from 9.9% in December and November and the increases were just under 9.0% for October back to August.

Take a look at the year over year change in final demand and core change which means without food, energy, and trade.

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Jim Ulvog

High inflation rates likely to continue for remainder of 2022.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

It is looking like we are going to see high inflation numbers for a while, probably least all of 2022.

Mentioned yesterday the CPI increase of 7.9% in a year hit a 40 year record.

Treasure Secretary’s expectations.

In an interview on 3/10/22, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the inflation numbers are going to be uncomfortable for the rest of 2022.

Fox Business is one source that covered her comments on 3/10/22: Treasury Sec. Yellen contradicts Psaki: Likely to see another year of ‘very uncomfortable’ inflation.

The money quote:

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Jim Ulvog

Consumer Price Index increases 0.8% in February 2022. One year increase highest since January 1982.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.8% in February 2022 after increasing 0.6% in January, 0.5% in December 2021, and 0.8% in November.

That is 1.9 % for the last three months.

Graph at top of this post shows the monthly increase in the all-items index along with the core change, which excludes food and energy. Graph also shows an average of the preceding 12 months for the all-items indicator.

The 12 month cumulative change continues to skyrocket. The monthly change in all items index and the cumulative change for 12 months looks as follows:

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Jim Ulvog

Before they claim credit for victory over Covid, remember what our supposed leaders did to us.

Accomplishments of our leaders during the pandemic. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

With the speed at which restrictions are disappearing we will shortly see our alleged leaders claiming credit for their victory in defeating the pandemic.

In advance of those headlines, here are a number of reports to keep in mind: articles on adverse medical consequences, increasing supply chain disruption, and flaming hypocrisy from flagrant hypocrites:

  • Leaked information from military’s medical database shows severity of adverse effects from vaccinations.
  • In England, the vaccinated are getting sicker at higher rates than the unvaccinated.
  • In New York state the double jab is a mere 12% effective for young children.
  • Police officers moving to the Inland Empire area of California to escape vaccination dictats.
  • Train robberies are a thing in Los Angeles.
  • Weapon thefts are part of those train robberies.
  • Backups at US ports are spreading.
  • School board in New York blows off masks while schoolchildren suspended for doing the same.
  • Masks optional for SAG awards and mandatory for schoolchildren.

When you see the declarations of victory by our rulers in political office, overlords in the public health sector, and our betters in news media, remember what they did.

Remember what happened.

Remember who took away 18 months or 2 years of your child’s education. 

Remember who cratered the economy and caused the supply shortage we see every day. 

Remember who generated the Carter-era rate of inflation we see all around us.

Remember.

Adverse health impacts.

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Jim Ulvog

Final comments on predictions:  Damage caused by government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

This is a visual illustration of what we will eventually conclude the federal and state governments accomplished by their policies during the pandemic. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now is the time to put these prediction into print.

Introduction to this series is here.

The predictions are here.

Why now?

I’ve been writing about the devastation caused by the shutdowns for just under 2 years. Have been mulling over these predictions for well over a year.

Why didn’t I post these thoughts a year ago?

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Jim Ulvog

Predictions: Damage caused by government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

How much harm was caused by government reaction to the pandemic? I will put into print my predictions of what we eventually learn of the damage willfully caused by the federal and state governments.

Introduction to this series is here.

Concluding comments are here.

Over the last two years reports have surfaced here and there hinting at the following predictions. In the next few months more reports will emerge.

It will take honest, serious researchers years before statistically valid research provides solid evidence for these predictions. Strong, verifiable, reproducible proof will emerge with time.

I predict that in a decade or two there will be a consensus throughout the country that the government reaction to the coronavirus pandemic was the worst, most destructive government policy in U.S. history.

Seven predictions follow:

1 – Government response caused more deaths as measured by years-of-life-lost than deaths prevented by the government response as measured by years-of-life-lost.

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Jim Ulvog