April inflation data is out. Adjusted for seasonal factors the increase was 0.4%. Without seasonal adjustment it was up 0.6%. That makes adjusted increases for last five months 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.4. Not good numbers and a worse pattern. That’s a 2.2% increase in consumer prices in five months.
Put the data into a graph like last month. Also added the adjusted amounts. Here’s the graph:
I have not followed the turmoil surrounding Greg Mortenson and his book, Three Cups of Tea. I have no idea whether the information in the report by 60 Minutes is correct or perhaps even understated. Perhaps, just maybe, they left out so much of the other side of the story that there really is not any story. I do not know.
However, there is a lesson to be learned for all of us, regardless of whether story has substance or the reports are totally hollow:
Guard the reputation of your ministry.
Paul Nelson is a member of the World Vision board of directors. He has an article up on the issue that reminds all of us in the non-profit world to be attentive to the integrity and reputation of our ministries. I commend the article to you: Lessons from “Three Cups of Tea” controversy.
Giving is not likely to get good anytime soon. Confidence level in the current Barna survey is not particularly strong and seems to be deteriorating. Seems to me that confidence in the future is a major driver in how people will give.
If you are raising funds for your organization or trying to figure out when you can expand, pay attention to this part of the survey.
Here is Barna’s May 2011 report: Donors Proceed with Caution, Tithing Declines.
A cartoon that discusses some internal controls over bank reconciliations in a local church:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KLiK8vNDYs]
The cartoon is based on the book Once Upon Internal Control – A tale of good and bad ways to implement internal controls in a local church, written by James Ulvog, CPA.
If you want more detail, the video above is based on the following selection from the book:
Using fables to explain complex issues in an entertaining way. What a great idea!
Of course I’m just catching on to what others, like Patrick Lencioni and Kenneth Blanchard, have been doing in print for a decade (or three).
Now the fable telling is active in the visual arts.
Less bad – that is the description I’ve been looking for as I’ve read several recent surveys of donor giving patterns. Things are still grim but not quite as bad as a year ago.
David Kinnaman, president of the Barna Group says the following:
Now, even as the economy shows some signs of improvement, donors are still reluctant to return to their previous levels of generosity. They may be less shell-shocked than 15 months ago, but they are still cautious.
It isn’t the initial idea of a technology that makes life so fantastic for all of us. It is the next round of people who figure out how to make it ridiculously cheap that lets everyone enjoy the really cool inventions. So explains Matt Ridley, of the Wall Street Journal, in Three Cheers for the Cheapeners and Cost-Cutters.
“A feature of innovation is that the greatest impact of a new idea comes not when the light bulb goes on over the geek’s head, but when the resulting technology eventually becomes cheap enough for many people to use—perhaps decades later.
This is the driver behind the tremendous productivity gains in the last few centuries.
That’s news to me. Seems the bad privacy news just keeps falling out of the trees. Perhaps it is because I’ve been attentive to such issues lately.
My repeated point: We need to understand the technology so we can respond intelligently.
Today’s news from Bruce Schneier is on a web site that offers to help you find your stolen camera by telling them your serial number and they will look to find where on the ‘net photos from that camera have been posted. See his post Stolen Camera Finder.
Huh?
Knowledge is power. When we learn what is involved in location tracking on smart phones, we can then determine what impact it has on us and our organizations. Then we can adjust to avoid bad results.
So bad things could possibly happen if someone gains access to the tracking data on your phone. How could someone get access to the file where that data is stored?
I attended the Christian Leadership Alliance conference in Dallas last week. Learned lots of new stuff and had fun visiting with lots of colleagues. Picked up info on location tracking that I wanted to mention. Steve Hewitt of Christian Computing Magazine provided some information, which I will so identify.
Here are a few ways to get access to the location tracking data:
What could be the problem with your phone keeping track of your location and sending that to Apple or Google?
What if someone hacks the Apple or Google site? Or hacks your phone? Or merely gains physical access to your phone for a few minutes to grab the file that has the tracking data?
“I’m not breaking the law” I hear your say. Fine. Let’s consider a few other scenarios.
Previously discussed Weeds in the Garden, a superb book on fraud prevention for the local church. The author, Verne Hargrave, has written a superb five-page summary in the Spring 2011 NACBA Ledger.
Main points in the Ten Ingredients of Effective Fraud Prevention are:
Outcome measures are being forced on ministries. Does this organization actually create change in the area of their cause? Ultimately, answering that question will be a good thing, even though it is very hard.
How about asking the same questions of humanitarian aid? Does the help provided actually make the lives of struggling people better? How do we know?
Measuring How and Why Aid Works – or Doesn’t, written by William Easterly in the Wall Street Journal, discusses two books that help us ask questions. The same concepts apply to aid as to domestic non-profits. Are they making any difference?
Mr. Easterly focuses in on the core issues when he says:
The great economists Hayek and Keynes continue their rap encounters. This time they go to a congressional hearing and wind up in a boxing ring.
Check out Fight of the Century at EconStories.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc&feature=player_embedded#t=447s]
Some of my favorite lines:
Christianity Today points to a study which starts to answer the question. Their article What’s a Congregation Worth? provides a nice illustration of a 1997 study by Professor Ram Cnaan.
In his study, he quantifies an urban congregation contributes around $140,000 of value to the local community. CT states he updated his estimate to $476,000 in 2009.
Some of the factors quantified: