Jim Ulvog

Ulvog CPA firm passes peer review inspection.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

I am pleased to announce my firm has passed its most recent peer review. 

The inspection report, which has a grade of “pass”, is for the year ending May 31, 2021.  The report is dated December 15, 2021 and was accepted by the state Peer Review Committee on April 7, 2022.

This is the seventh peer review my firm has completed and I am thrilled to share that every time I have received the highest rating possible.

For those not familiar with the peer review process in the accounting profession, this is a self-regulatory program that evaluates the quality of a CPA firm’s quality control over performing audits, reviews, and compilations.  It looks at the processes inside a firm and also looks in detail at select engagements to ensure the audits, reviews, and compilations were performed in accordance with professional standards.

The concept is good procedures evidenced by good work on those specific engagements under inspection will result in an overall system that will routinely produce high quality results.

Jim Ulvog

The Fried-Chicken-Meal index continues to show severe inflation.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Introducing the fried-chicken-meal inflation index. 

Previous discussions on this blog have featured the consumer price index measuring prices paid by urban consumers, the producer price index measuring input prices paid by manufacturers and producers, along with the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the favorite measure of inflation at the Federal Reserve Bank.

Now we have the fried-chicken-index.

This newest inflation measure is based on the price charged in Rancho Cucamonga, California (including tax) for a three-piece chicken tenders meal with one side, biscuit, and medium soda as prepared by the Colonel from Kentucky.

According to this index, the price of the meal went up 4.7% in the first quarter of 2022.

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Jim Ulvog

Preliminary list of people who owe us apologies for the damage they caused. First round of admissions to overcounting Covid deaths.

Counting Covid deaths using CDC methodology. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now that Covid infection rates have collapsed in the United States, our political and public health ‘leaders’ are backtracking on the steps they took which caused so much damage.

Before they take credit for a virus variant running its course and fading away, we need to be pay attention to all those who caused trauma by their actions and who had their thumb on the scales when quantifying the impact of the virus.

Articles for your consideration today:

  • CDC “accidentally” overcounted Covid deaths.
  • Massachusetts overcounted Covid deaths by including deaths from any cause whatsoever if a person had an infection diagnosis within 60 days prior to death.
  • An incomplete list of people and organizations who owe us profuse apologies for the damage they have caused.

3/18/22 – Reuters – CDC reports fewer COVID-19 pediatric deaths after data correction – CDC reduced their tally of deaths caused by Covid by 72,277. This includes 416 pediatric fatalities.

That is a 24% drop in the number of children they count as having died because of Covid. With the revised tally of 966,575 deaths in total that means they reduced the total count by 7.5%.

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Jim Ulvog

Producer Price Index up 0.8% in February 2022 with January revised upward from 1.0% to 1.2%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in February.   The previously reported 1.0% rise in January was revised to 1.2%. So that is actually a cumulative increase of 1.0% in February

Keep in mind the prior monthly increases PPI are revised as needed. This is in contrast to CPI which is not revised.

In February, core PPI, without food, energy, & trade, was up 0.2% in February with January revised downward from 0.9% to 0.8%.

For background, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a description of PPI:

“The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that measure price change from the purchaser’s perspective. Sellers’ and purchasers’ prices may differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs.”

So the PPI measures prices received by producers for their goods and services. Those costs roll into the goods and services you and I buy as end consumers.

This means the increases in wholesale prices, which show a lot of inflation, are heading our way as those increases work themselves into the CPI.

Graph at the top of this post shows the monthly price change for total demand with separate line for total demand goods and total demand services.

With revisions, the year over year increase in PPI is 10.0% in February and January, which is only a slight increase from 9.9% in December and November and the increases were just under 9.0% for October back to August.

Take a look at the year over year change in final demand and core change which means without food, energy, and trade.

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Jim Ulvog

High inflation rates likely to continue for remainder of 2022.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

It is looking like we are going to see high inflation numbers for a while, probably least all of 2022.

Mentioned yesterday the CPI increase of 7.9% in a year hit a 40 year record.

Treasure Secretary’s expectations.

In an interview on 3/10/22, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the inflation numbers are going to be uncomfortable for the rest of 2022.

Fox Business is one source that covered her comments on 3/10/22: Treasury Sec. Yellen contradicts Psaki: Likely to see another year of ‘very uncomfortable’ inflation.

The money quote:

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Jim Ulvog

Consumer Price Index increases 0.8% in February 2022. One year increase highest since January 1982.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.8% in February 2022 after increasing 0.6% in January, 0.5% in December 2021, and 0.8% in November.

That is 1.9 % for the last three months.

Graph at top of this post shows the monthly increase in the all-items index along with the core change, which excludes food and energy. Graph also shows an average of the preceding 12 months for the all-items indicator.

The 12 month cumulative change continues to skyrocket. The monthly change in all items index and the cumulative change for 12 months looks as follows:

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Jim Ulvog

Before they claim credit for victory over Covid, remember what our supposed leaders did to us.

Accomplishments of our leaders during the pandemic. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

With the speed at which restrictions are disappearing we will shortly see our alleged leaders claiming credit for their victory in defeating the pandemic.

In advance of those headlines, here are a number of reports to keep in mind: articles on adverse medical consequences, increasing supply chain disruption, and flaming hypocrisy from flagrant hypocrites:

  • Leaked information from military’s medical database shows severity of adverse effects from vaccinations.
  • In England, the vaccinated are getting sicker at higher rates than the unvaccinated.
  • In New York state the double jab is a mere 12% effective for young children.
  • Police officers moving to the Inland Empire area of California to escape vaccination dictats.
  • Train robberies are a thing in Los Angeles.
  • Weapon thefts are part of those train robberies.
  • Backups at US ports are spreading.
  • School board in New York blows off masks while schoolchildren suspended for doing the same.
  • Masks optional for SAG awards and mandatory for schoolchildren.

When you see the declarations of victory by our rulers in political office, overlords in the public health sector, and our betters in news media, remember what they did.

Remember what happened.

Remember who took away 18 months or 2 years of your child’s education. 

Remember who cratered the economy and caused the supply shortage we see every day. 

Remember who generated the Carter-era rate of inflation we see all around us.

Remember.

Adverse health impacts.

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Jim Ulvog

Final comments on predictions:  Damage caused by government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

This is a visual illustration of what we will eventually conclude the federal and state governments accomplished by their policies during the pandemic. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Now is the time to put these prediction into print.

Introduction to this series is here.

The predictions are here.

Why now?

I’ve been writing about the devastation caused by the shutdowns for just under 2 years. Have been mulling over these predictions for well over a year.

Why didn’t I post these thoughts a year ago?

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Jim Ulvog

Predictions: Damage caused by government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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How much harm was caused by government reaction to the pandemic? I will put into print my predictions of what we eventually learn of the damage willfully caused by the federal and state governments.

Introduction to this series is here.

Concluding comments are here.

Over the last two years reports have surfaced here and there hinting at the following predictions. In the next few months more reports will emerge.

It will take honest, serious researchers years before statistically valid research provides solid evidence for these predictions. Strong, verifiable, reproducible proof will emerge with time.

I predict that in a decade or two there will be a consensus throughout the country that the government reaction to the coronavirus pandemic was the worst, most destructive government policy in U.S. history.

Seven predictions follow:

1 – Government response caused more deaths as measured by years-of-life-lost than deaths prevented by the government response as measured by years-of-life-lost.

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Jim Ulvog

Introduction to: Predictions – Damage caused by government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

It is time to lay down my predictions about what we will eventually conclude about the damage caused by the government reaction to the coronavirus pandemic.

It will take time, but we will eventually prove government actions caused horrible damage. We will quantify the destruction willfully inflicted.

The predictions are here.

Concluding comments are here.

Since April 2020 I have been writing about the damage caused by the economic shutdown imposed by federal and state governments. Over 200 posts on this blog point out the economic, political, social, educational, and medical damage directly caused by government action.

I started writing in early April 2020 calling out the danger of lockdowns with my first direct complaint on 4/26/20 about the damage caused by government actions.

To lay down my first marker, here is the headline and first paragraph from back in late April 2020:

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Jim Ulvog

In case of nuclear attack, please maintain six feet social distance and wear your mask as you bend over and kiss your, um, backside goodbye.

Image from FEMA at https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion

I don’t know how any comedian can possibly develop new jokes when competing against the silly, silly people in the public health community. And FEMA.

(Updates at end of article describing laughter that is emerging around the ol’ internet.)

The mental giants, the phenomenal geniuses at FEMA have the following advice to survive the fallout of a nuclear explosion:

Most importantly, after the explosion, please do get indoors.

Then go the basement or interior of the building.

That’s sound advice so far.

And then?

Well, then you should

“Stay away from the outer walls and roof. Try to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household. If possible, wear a mask if you’re sheltering with people who are not a part of your household. Children under two years old, people who have trouble breathing, and those who are unable to remove masks on their own should not wear them.” (emphasis added)

Well, good.

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Jim Ulvog

Federal Reserve adopts rules restricting insider trading by insider staff.

The facade of the Federal Reserve Bank. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The Fed formally approved rules which will provide significant restrictions on investment activities by regional bank presidents, senior staff, and a host of staff have access to market-moving information as a part of their job.

This follows multiple news reports of Fed officials who were trading securities with somewhat awkward timing, such as after decisions had been made and before the full impact hit the market or in anticipation of major decisions which would be made within days.

The Fed issued a press release on 2/18/22: FOMC follow adopts comprehensive new rules for investment and trading activity.

Here are a few comments in the press release, which provide a great summary of the new restrictions. I converted the comment into bullet points:

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Jim Ulvog

Six more sentences for parents bribing their children into college.

Georgetown University, which along with USC, seems to be one of the more popular destination of parents in the college admissions scandal. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Been a while since I updated the sentences so richly earned by parents in the “Varsity Blues” college admissions scam.  Six more parents have learned the consequences of cheating and bribing their darlings into schools, usually as fake athletes.

Punishment for not pleading guilty.

Of particular note is two men who went to trial earned 15 months and a year plus a day.  The other four in this update who all seem to have been into the scheme to roughly the same extent, earned 6 weeks, 6 weeks, 6 weeks, and 2 months.

See a pattern?

There is a brutal penalty to be paid in the United States for insisting on a trial by jury of your peers.  In this small sample, the two who demanded trial earned average of 13.5 months average. The four who pleaded out earned average of 6.5 weeks, or 1.6 months.

That is a difference of 11.9 months.  That is about a year. Or, 8.4 times longer.

Six sentences

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Jim Ulvog

Just like that, the mask mandates evaporate over the weekend.

The science changed over the weekend of February 5, 2022 so all those signs can be removed because masks aren’t needed. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Mask mandates are going away everywhere. It is almost as if a memo went out over the weekend of February 5, 2022 to all the people who have had their boot firmly planted on our face that they should switch to sneakers.  

I’ll leave it for you to consider what has caused this radical change in ‘science’ over one weekend.

Regardless of the cause, the floodgate opened.

Consider articles describing what has happened this week:

  • California will lift the blanket indoor mask mandate.
  • New Jersey, Oregon, Connecticut, and Delaware do the same.
  • Nevada joins in.
  • Los Angeles County slightly relaxes their mask requirements.
  • Eight counties in the Bay Area will lift their mask mandate.

Almost fell out of my chair reading one comment in the San Francisco Chronicle article discussed below. Unidentified public health officials are arriving at a conclusion which was achieved by dozens of other states approximately 23 months ago. I will quote the article, because otherwise you would think I’m imagining this:

“…officials say they plan to ease away from legal mandates to dictate behavior and instead trust individuals to make their own health decisions, including whether and when to wear masks.”

Wow. Only took two years to make that realization. I guess that’s better than never.

Until this month, a trust-the-public attitude was prohibited, with penalty of banishment from the public square for anyone who held such a radical, heretical concept. After the weekend, trusting people to make their own decisions is suddenly acceptable.

The New Jersey and Nevada governors also made previously-heretical comments.

More details:

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Jim Ulvog

More news on devastating health impact caused by government imposed lockdowns.

It may take a decade, but eventually we will be able to identify all the damage government policies caused during the pandemic. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Grim news emerges every few days about some aspect of how horribly the government imposed lockdowns have damaged people’s health. It is difficult to keep up with all the bad news. 

My guess is it will take a decade or more for researchers to full understand the destruction willfully caused by politicians and so-called public health leaders.

A few recent articles:

  • Lockdowns are killing young Canadians.
  • Somewhere around 30,000 excess deaths from diabetes during the lockdown. “Excess deaths” means more people died that would have otherwise.
  • Study calculates lockdowns reduced number of reported infections but did not reduce hospitalizations and did not reduce deaths.  One thing lockdowns achieved was to push poor people into the unemployment line. No lives saved. No hospitalizations avoided.

(Hint for future reference: Combine the first and second articles with the third and we have the hypothesis that lockdowns caused deaths while not preventing any deaths.)

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Jim Ulvog