Jim Ulvog

Destruction in the educational world caused by the lockdown.

Education today. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Growing indications point towards ongoing damage to learning at all educational levels due to the shut down. From kindergartners to college students there will be losses of learning time and knowledge.

Older students will be able to catch up. Motivated students will get through. I fear youngsters in particular and unmotivated students in general will suffer permanent damage from the lockdown.

Consider all the damage described in the following articles is a result of a public policy choice made by a host of state and local officials.

The Dispatch – 9/10/20 – The sad realities of virtual learning. – Looks like kindergartners are disappearing from schools. Enrollment in Los Angeles Unified School District is down 14% from a year ago.

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Jim Ulvog

The shutdown is killing people. Some estimates of ‘excess deaths’ from the lockdown.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The comment that shutting down the economy represents a trade-off of lives versus jobs is an invalid comparison.

The real trade-off from a shutdown is lives versus lives.

People are dying because of the shutdown. The shutdown is killing people.

It is time to open the economy.

I don’t have time to summarize all the articles I have read making this point. Here are just three examples.

The pandemic is killing dementia patients

Washington Post – 9/16/20 – Pandemic isolation has killed thousands of Alzheimer’s patients while families watch from afar – The Washington Post, the Post, studied data from CDC to identify there have been 13,200 excess deaths from Alzheimer’s and dementia since the shutdown started. Excess deaths are the extra deaths over the number that would otherwise be expected because of some particular situation.

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Jim Ulvog

Slight improvement in new unemployment claims for week ending 9/12/20.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 9/12/20 dropped a little, with “only” 860,000 people losing their jobs, down from an upwardly revised 893,000 the previous week. For contrast, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.

Better news in the data is the number of continuing claims for unemployment dropped about twice as much as the new claims, to 12.6M for the week ending 9/5/20.  That is the lowest since the shutdown started.

CNBC report on 9/17/20 says Jobless claims were lower than expected but unemployment growth is still sluggish. The number of new claims was slightly better than  the 875,000 which economists expected.

As I continue to sort out for myself what this means, will continue listing the stats I’m tracking.

The number of new claims for unemployment and number drawing unemployment is provided by Department of Labor. I calculated the net change, which I assume represents the number of new jobs, although it could also be that people dropping out of the job market wash into the new jobs number:

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Jim Ulvog

Check out these requirements in Los Angeles County for a church to worship, then give a one word summary. Perhaps repression?

Grace Community Church by Chris Yarzab is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Check out the lengthy list of specific requirements imposed by the County of Los Angeles before a church can worship on campus. Pastor John MacArthur describes the requirements placed on Grace Community Church.

After I go through the requirements ponder how you would summarize these restrictions.

Ponder whether the net effect is to strangle worship.

Then ponder whether the net effect is an intentional strategy.

9/14/20 –HillFaith –Faithful Disobedience: Here’s The Absurdly Detailed California Covid Orders to Prevent Churches From Meeting to Worship Indoors – A video embedded at the link gives the first four minutes of Dr. MacArthur’s sermon on 9/13/20. He received a rousing round of applause at the beginning.

He mentioned a few of the requirements placed on the church in order to hold any worship services. The following comments aren’t exact quotes, but are close:

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Jim Ulvog

New claims for unemployment slowly declining with new jobs exceeding new claims; 9/5/20

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

For the third time since start of the recession, the number of new claims for unemployment for the week ending 9/5/20 was below the 1,000,000 mark. For contrast, before the government induced shutdown of the economy, new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.

On the other hand, the number of new claims was flat for the week – the damage from the shutdown in terms of new claims did not go down.

As I continue to sort out for myself what this means, will keep listing the stats I’m tracking.

The number of new claims for unemployment and number drawing unemployment is provided by Department of Labor. I calculated the net change, which I assume represents the number of new jobs, although could also be that people dropping out of the job market could wash into that number:

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Jim Ulvog

California’s efforts to suppress religious freedom will fail – #4 in a series.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Circumstances are now to the point in the state of California, and three counties in particular, where we can say that the government is now persecuting the Church. This presents itself as counties going after three specific congregations, but when you look at the details you see a broader pattern in play.

These efforts will fail.

Three previous posts discuss this issue.

A few updates to previous posts before getting to the main discussion.

The County of Los Angeles has unilaterally canceled the lease on land which provides something in the range of 40% or 50% of parking capacity for Grace Community Church. Oh, the lease has been in place for 45 years.

North Valley Baptist Church is now facing $52,000 in fines for the heinous offense of worshiping indoors. Keep in mind this is the church which was visited by spies from the county. It certainly appears that Santa Clara is acting like the Stasi back in about old days of East Germany. The pastor declared “We Are Not Closing down This Church” – California Pastor Warns Officials.

Also, additional Churches Defy California Guv’s Restrictions on Multiple Worship Gatherings including:

  • Harvest Rock Church, Pasadena
  • River of Life Church, Oroville
  • Destiny Christian Church, Rockland
  • South Bay United Pentecostal, Chula Vista

The article also provides the biblical explanation for standing up to unbiblical government rules.

These efforts will ultimately fail.

There may be short-term successes for the government.

There may be intermediate-term successes.

These efforts will fail.

Standing up for constitutional rights in court.

Los Angeles County doesn’t realize they have taken on a church that will not back down. I will make an easy guess that Grace Community Church will put whatever effort in time and dollars that it takes to stand up in court even if it involves going to state appeal court, then federal appeal, then US Supreme Court.

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Jim Ulvog

Unemployment rate declines again in August 2020 after sharp spike in April 2020.

After shooting from 3.4% in February to 14.7% in April, the headline unemployment rate has dropped to 8.4% in August.

You will interpret the statistics as you wish.

Looks to me like people are slowing getting back to work after the shock of the pandemic and follow-on government-ordered shutdown of the economy.

There are six different measures of unemployment, each providing a slightly different perspective. Put them all together for a more complex picture the economy.

At the top is a graph since 2007 of U-3, the headline statistic, along with U-6, the broadest stat which includes discouraged workers, marginally attached, and those working part time because they can’t find full time work.

For a closer picture, focus in on the stats since January 2019:

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Jim Ulvog

Devastation from government ordered shutdown of the economy – 3 of 3

What the California economy might look like by the time it is allowed to reopen. Photo of abandoned farm in North Dakota by James Ulvog.

This is the third in a series of posts describing the damage caused by shutting down the economy. First post discussed recent news on economic damage. Second post described ongoing health damage.

Some things are *not* going wrong

Just under half a million people attended the motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota from August 7 through 16.

9/1/20 – PJ Media – OH THE HORROR! Sturgis Motorcycle Rally COVID-19 Numbers Are in and They Are Shocking

Half a million. Official tally is 462,000.

In one small town.

Check out any of the pictures from the rally and you will notice a distinct lack of masks and social distancing.

Expectations in most media sources were for this event to produce massive amounts of infection.

Half a million people. In one town.

The tracking results are in from the massive numbers of people who were infected and the resulting fatalities from this massive event.

It is shocking. Amazing. Head-shaking. Astounding.

Best info available is that:

  • 196 people tested positive for COVID with results linked to attending Sturgis.
  • 4 people died.

To put that in context, 5 people died of motorcycle accidents in Sturgis during the rally.

Growing awareness something is wrong with lockdowns

8/24/20 – Wall Street Journal – New Thinking on COVID Lockdowns: They are Overly Blunt and Costly – Article has a massive amount of information on the course of the pandemic, wide range of strategies by national and state governments, and large volume of statistics. The story is told basically scrambled egg style with no pattern or trends or storylines that I can easily summarize.

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Jim Ulvog

Devastation from government ordered shutdown of the economy – 2 of 3

What the California economy might look like by the time it is allowed to reopen. Photo of abandoned farm in North Dakota by James Ulvog.

This is the second in a series of posts describing the damage caused by shutting down the economy. See previous post for economic damage.

Damage to health across a society

8/18/20 – British Office for National Statistics – Coronavirus and depression in adults, Great Britain: June 2020

Study by the British organization compared data from July 2019 to June 2020.

They found 19.2% of adults were experiencing depression in June 2020 compared to 9.7% in July 2019. That is a doubling as a result of the pandemic.

Severity of the rise can be seen by 6.2% of the population that had ongoing depression, 12.9% developed moderate to severe depression during the pandemic, and 3.5% some improvement during that time.

Is there any doubt that the overwhelming portion of that increase is due to the isolation and economic damage caused by the government ordered shutdowns?

An interesting exercise is to put that data into table as follows:

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Jim Ulvog

Devastation from government ordered shutdown of the economy – 1 of 3

What the California economy might look like by the time it is allowed to reopen. Photo of abandoned farm in North Dakota by James Ulvog.

Over the last several weeks I have accumulated a number of articles describing the economic and health damage caused by the government ordered shutdown of the economy.

I’ve been wanting to post these for a while. In light of the California government imposing more severe constraints on when the economy will be allowed to start functioning again, it is now time to publish.

Economic damage

7/30/20 – Wall Street Journal – US Economy Contracted at Record Rate last Quarter; Jobless Claims Rise to 1.43 million – The preliminary estimate of the collapse in the US economy for the second quarter came in at an annualized 32.9% drop. Again, that is annualized. In addition, it will be revised in each of the next two months as additional data is gathered by the feds.

That follows an annualized drop of 5% in the first quarter.

8/25/20 – CNBC – American Airlines to cut 19,000 jobs when federal aid expires in October – (more…)

Jim Ulvog

California’s suppression of religious freedom, retaliation update – #3 in a series

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

I was going to extend this two-part series to three, adding on an upbeat explanation that when counties go after the Church the government is destined to fail. Reference to Church with an upper case C refers to the worldwide church, the universal, invisible body of Christ instead of meaning one particular local congregation.

Planned for the next post to give a small illustration expanding out to wider examples in history and then going back to New Testament illustrations.

Then a news report yesterday about petty retaliation from Los Angeles County interrupted, showing I need a different post as the next discussion.

 

So, for your daily dose of shake-my-head amazement, consider…

8/31/20 – Disrn – LA County evicts John MacArthur’s Grace Church from parking lot lease held since 1975 – By now a few other news sources are covering the story, but as of this morning I did not find any major news organization that considered it important enough to have an article.

First, some background.

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Jim Ulvog

California’s suppression of religious freedom getting more serious – 2 of 2. Oops – 2 of 3.

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Update: Decided to make this a 3 part series. Next post – the effort to suppress religious freedom will not succeed.

Efforts to restrict the first amendment right of free expression of religion are growing in strength here in California. At least three counties are participating in the effort.

Pastor John MacArthur and Grace Community Church are standing in the gap, but other churches are also receiving pressure including planted spies, as discussed below. This is second article in this specific series.

Previous post gave recap of enforcement efforts against Grace Community Church. At end of this post there is a great comment from the GCC elders why the state dictacts are a direct restriction of religious expression

8/24/20 – PJ Media – California’s All-Out War on Church Worship Intensifies With Bans, Fines, and Sending In Spies – Three churches in California standing up to the oppressive restrictions on religious activities are receiving increased pressure from the state and county.

Some background:

  • Worship in a sanctuary is banned.
  • Singing or chanting of any sort is prohibited in worship, even when the worship is conducted in a private home.

Ventura County

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Jim Ulvog

California’s suppression of religious freedom getting more serious – 1 of 2

Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The efforts by the state of California and at least three counties in the state to restrict the first amendment right of free expression of religion are growing in strength.

Pastor John MacArthur and Grace Community Church are standing in the gap, but other churches are also receiving pressure, including planted spies. This is first article in this specific series.

Next post will give a concise explanation why prohibiting indoor worship, limiting worship size, and banning singing are direct restrictions on religious freedom.

In my humble opinion, the county does not yet know that in picking on GCC, they have targeted a church that will not back down when they have made up their mind. I predict there is a small but measurable chance this case could wind up in the U.S. Supreme Court.

8/20/20 – The Roys Reports – Julie Roys – Judge Rejects Request o Hold John MacArthur & Grace Community Church in Contempt – In the LA County Superior Court (that would be the initial trial court for proceedings) a judge refused to issue a contempt order for Pr. MacArthur and GCC. Also refused to impose $20,000 of fines.

Article gives recap of the legal efforts targeting GCC:

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Jim Ulvog

Number of new unemployment claims rises for week of 8/15/20, but new jobs continue to exceed new losses.

Unemployed business people. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

For the first time since 4/4/20, the number of new claims for unemployment increased for the 8/15/20 reporting date. Oddly, the increase of 109K is small for the time of pandemic but would be equal to about 4 weeks of new claims before the pandemic hit.

As I continue to sort out what this means, I’ll continue giving the same stats as provided for recent weeks.

Since the middle of June, which is when I started tracking this metric, the number of new jobs has exceeded the newly lost jobs by 5 million.

Looks to me like these stats suggest the economy is recovery, but at a slow pace, with unprecedented numbers of people still out of work at the same time as an extremely high number of new claims for unemployment are still rolling in.

 

The number of people drawing unemployment the number of new claims, and the resulting number of new jobs:

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Jim Ulvog

Additional sentences earned in “Varsity Blues” college admissions scandal.

Short term housing for six more parents who cheated getting their children into college. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Since my last update, there have been six more parents sentenced to prison for their participation in the college admission fraud.

In my research, found out the Department of Justice has a recap of defendants, charges, status, and sentencing information at their web site, Investigations of College Admissions and Testing Bribery Scheme.

The newest felons, all of whom will get to enjoy free, short-term federal housing:

#21 & #22 – Lori Laughlin and Mossimo Giannulli – Ms. Laughlin earned 2 months in prison, $150,000 fine, 2 years supervised release, and 100 hours community service.  Mr. Giannulli earned 5 months prison time, $250,000 fine, 2 years supervised release, and 250 hours community service.  They paid the organizer of the scam $500,000 to structure a scheme to present their two daughters as experienced rowing athletes even though neither of the children had any experience in the sport. The couple had loudly declared their innocence until entering a guilty plea back in May. Both of them were ordered to report to prison in November.

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Jim Ulvog