Nonprofit update.

The California governor has laid out some general plans on how the state eventually will be taken off lockdown. There are four overall phases stretched over the next year or more. Highlights include:

• Curb side pickup from retail stores will be allowed perhaps in weeks.
• In-person worship services and getting a haircut will be allowed months from now.
• Stay-at-home orders will not be lifted for a year or more.

Schools may start early, perhaps even in July. That will be conditioned upon schools having the ability to maintain safe distances between students.

This discussion will be posted on several of my blogs.

The graphic provided by the state describes the four stages:

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The Air Force Thunderbirds and the Navy Blue Angels flight demonstration teams are having a series of joint flyovers of multiple metropolitan areas as a tribute to all the health care providers and first responders.

Saw some video of the flights this morning. Even distant view on a TV screen and just straight line flying was impressive.

Off to the side there was a pursuit plane, obviously taking lots of pictures. When those appear on the USAF and Navy websites, I’ll post some. In the meantime, here are a few pix of those astounding pilots, for your viewing pleasure.

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We are past the point where the damage caused by the lockdown is greater than the damage caused by the coronavirus.  The damage could start compounding.  Here are just a few of the recent articles making this point:

4/22/20 – The Hill – The data is in – stop the panic and end the total isolation – A medical doctor says it is time for our leaders to examine the evidence instead of hypothetical guesses and then carefully let the country start operating again. He cites five factors ignored by people who want to keep the country in ongoing lockdown:

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

Keep in mind California will probably be on lockdown until August and Virginia may be locked down until a vaccine is in use.

Two severe medical problems are being caused by and will be prolonged by the severe lockdown.

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Many states are starting to open up their economy.

Virginia may be closed down tight for up to 24 more months.

California may not open up until August.

August.

There will be incalculable medical, emotional, and financial damage in California and Virginia from the lockdown. More on that momentarily.

This discussion will be posted on several of my blogs.

Good news

On the bright side, getting most attention for opening are:

• Texas
• Georgia

Other states are thawing because they also don’t want to bankrupt everyone, destroy all the hospitals, further tear down overall health levels, and permanently cripple their economy. List includes:

• Alaska
• Colorado
• Minnesota
• Montana
• Mississippi
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania
• South Carolina
• Tennessee

And then there is Virginia and California.

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Every additional day of the shutdown is causing horrible damage. Not only is the economy suffering with record high unemployment, soon-to-be record high bankruptcies and shuttered businesses, but also there is now and will continue to be a decline in overall health. We will see increased mortality from other causes because of the shutdown. The damage to our freedoms is widespread and immeasurable.

Point made by the author of the column linked below puts it this way:

This is not a trade-off between lives and the economy. It’s a trade-off between lives and lives.

In a series of articles over the last week I attempted, in my own feeble way, to describe the wide ranging damage we are watching grow every day.

The question our governors and mayors urgently need to consider is whether we have already passed the point at which there will be more damage (including deaths) from the shutdown than from the coronavirus.

This post will be published on several of my blogs.

Trading off lives for lives

4/17/20 – Colorado Politics – Opinion/It’s time to shift tack – and contain the virus while reopening Colorado’s economy – Author was sounding the alarm on a pending medical disaster well before others realized there was a problem. That danger is now past.

He draws the analogy to a hurricane expected to make landfall at category 5 but deteriorated to a bad thunderstorm the morning it landed. In that analogy the cat 5 which was expected to land on the entire country only hit New York, New Orleans, and Detroit.

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I can barely type fast enough to keep up with the adverse impact on the economy or freedom. Can barely keep up with the news about entire sectors of the economy collapsing. Most recent sectors I’ve learned about:  airlines and the entire health care system. Since drafting this post last evening, learned about the destruction in the clean energy industry and saw some stats on the devastation in the restaurant sector.

Airlines

4/20/20 – NewsMax – Big 3 US Airlines May Cut More Than 100,000 Jobs by Fall – At the moment passenger loads are frightening – article says domestic flights are averaging 10 passengers and international flights are averaging 24 people plus crew.

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We can now see an extensive effort to re-write the story of the shutdown of the economy. Before that is accomplished it is necessary to put a number of factors on the table so they don’t disappear down George Orwell’s 1984 memory hole.

4/13/20 – American Institute for Economic Research – Liberation From Lockdown Now – Article discusses recent explanations and how we got to this point.

We need to remember this uncomfortable information before it is removed from the discussion.

I shall quote one paragraph from the article to keep the information alive before it is erased from the record. The early advice from the experts was:

“For a family sitting around the dinner table tonight,” said Dr. Nancy Messionnier, a spokesperson for the CDC on January 17; “this is not something that they generally need to worry about.”

Let’s not forget the next sentence:

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Some states are already loosening some of the shutdown restrictions.

The ‘indicators’ announced by California, Oregon, and Washington indicate it may be months before any parts of the economy are allowed to revive.

Washington state and Texas show the stark contrast in approached.

(This discussion will be posted at several of my blogs.)

4/19/20 – USA Today – US reopening: What states are relaxing social distancing restrictions and moving away from lockdowns? – Several states have already dialed back parts of the lockdown. Others have announced dates to do so. A summary of the small steps:

• Now – Florida, Minnesota, Vermont
• April 24 – Texas Montana
• May 1 – Ohio, Idaho, North Dakota

Californians will stay in lockdown for a very long time

4/14/20 – Office of the governor – Governor Newsom Outlines Six Critical Indicators the State will Consider Before Modifying the Stay-at-Home Order and Other COVID-19 Interventions

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Here are a few articles in the last few days describing the economic catastrophe that is expanding daily as we watch. Estimate is out that one out of four employees in Los Angeles are out of work. Higher education as an industry is in danger.

4/14/20 – American Enterprise Institute – The International Monetary Fund’s coronavirus reality check – The IMF expects a worse downturn than the ‘08/’09 Great Recession.  Global output is expected to have a US$9 trillion loss in output from what would have been expected.

For the US and Europe the loss will be equal to two years worth of economic growth.

4/17/20 – LAist – LA’s Latest Unemployment Numbers Are Staggering. An Estimated 1.3M Jobs Have Already Been Lost – Percent of LA county residents who are employed is estimated at 45%. That is down from 61% in March. The difference is 16%. Divide that by the 61% employed prior month indicates 26% of the people working a month ago are now unemployed. Data is from researchers at USC.

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Because a large and growing number of elected officials do not have a functional awareness of the Bill of Rights, I will recite the first and second amendments to help them out. Will then cite merely a few of the recent violations thereof.

Article I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Article II

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

..the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

4/17/20 – NJ.com – Woman charged for organizing protest of Murphy’s coronavirus stay-at-home order – (more…)

Found an article that well explains the worry I have from this extended shutdown of most of the US economy.

4/17/20 – Wall Street Journal – The Hidden Toll of Untreated Illnesses / As COVID-19 overwhelms doctors and hospitals, patients with other conditions receive less care, leading to a rise in mortality.

My concern is the shutdown, loss of income, and isolation will have adverse health consequences. What will we see in terms of the level of increased mortality of people with serious illnesses which would otherwise not occur?

How many people are going to die from the shutdown?

What the tipping point at which the shutdown has more cost in terms of health than benefit? The  first step in addressing that question is realizing the question even exists.

Author of the article is a practicing cardiologist.

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