Other stuff – Page 16 – Nonprofit update.

Good news in some states for people who like to pay their rent and put food on the table. Bad news for California and Virginia.

A deep freezer, used for keeping large volumes of meat and vegetables frozen. That’s where the economies of California and Virginia are going to be stored for a long time. Image (but not commentary) courtesy of Adobe Stock

Many states are starting to open up their economy.

Virginia may be closed down tight for up to 24 more months.

California may not open up until August.

August.

There will be incalculable medical, emotional, and financial damage in California and Virginia from the lockdown. More on that momentarily.

This discussion will be posted on several of my blogs.

Good news

On the bright side, getting most attention for opening are:

Texas
Georgia

Other states are thawing because they also don’t want to bankrupt everyone, destroy all the hospitals, further tear down overall health levels, and permanently cripple their economy. List includes:

Alaska
Colorado
Minnesota
Montana
Mississippi
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Tennessee

And then there is Virginia and California.

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April 25, 2020, 2:58 pmApril 25, 2020, 3:05 pmJim Ulvog

This shutdown is damaging our health, collapsing the economy, and shredding our freedoms. What will be the tally from ‘avoidable deaths?’

Will the Grim Reaper get more business from the coronavirus or the shutdown?

Every additional day of the shutdown is causing horrible damage. Not only is the economy suffering with record high unemployment, soon-to-be record high bankruptcies and shuttered businesses, but also there is now and will continue to be a decline in overall health. We will see increased mortality from other causes because of the shutdown. The damage to our freedoms is widespread and immeasurable.

Point made by the author of the column linked below puts it this way:

This is not a trade-off between lives and the economy. It’s a trade-off between lives and lives.

In a series of articles over the last week I attempted, in my own feeble way, to describe the wide ranging damage we are watching grow every day.

The question our governors and mayors urgently need to consider is whether we have already passed the point at which there will be more damage (including deaths) from the shutdown than from the coronavirus.

This post will be published on several of my blogs.

Trading off lives for lives

4/17/20 – Colorado Politics – Opinion/It’s time to shift tack – and contain the virus while reopening Colorado’s economy – Author was sounding the alarm on a pending medical disaster well before others realized there was a problem. That danger is now past.

He draws the analogy to a hurricane expected to make landfall at category 5 but deteriorated to a bad thunderstorm the morning it landed. In that analogy the cat 5 which was expected to land on the entire country only hit New York, New Orleans, and Detroit.

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April 24, 2020, 10:13 amApril 24, 2020, 10:25 amJim Ulvog

The horrid news just keeps on rolling.

The news feels like we are moving ever deeper into an over-the-top dystopian novel. Unfortunately this isn’t fiction.

Another 4 million unemployment claims last week and ongoing attacks on the First Amendment.

About the only job specialty in the country today with bright growth prospects in the near term is trial attorney.

(This post will cross-published on several of my blogs.)

New unemployment claims

4/23/20 – Department of Labor – Unemployment insurance weekly claims – an additional 4,427,000 people filed their initial claim for unemployment in the week ending April 18. Here is another article in case link is dynamic.

This is on top of the four previous weeks of horrible levels of new claims.

Here is a summary of the unreal news. Recap shows number of new claims for unemployment for the last five weeks with a subtotal. The number of people who were unemployed in March is then listed with my estimate of the total unemployment now.

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April 23, 2020, 7:21 amApril 23, 2020, 7:26 amJim Ulvog

More entries on the list of economic sectors devastated by the shutdown.

Hat tip to Behind the Black for the legwork identifying additional sectors of the economy that are collapsing. Large segments of the economy I haven’t mentioned before:

Home sales
Housing construction
Apartment rentals
Clothing production
Flower trade

Damage to these sectors won’t immediately heal the moment state governors decide they will allow the economy to come back to life out of its induced coma.

Home sales

4/21/20 – Fox Business – US home sales plunge 8.5% in March, and it may grow worse – Sales of existing homes dropped 8.5% in March. Article use the word “cratered.”

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April 22, 2020, 6:00 amApril 21, 2020, 11:28 pmJim Ulvog

More sectors of the economy being destroyed by shutdown of the economy.

Imagine all that frantic hustle and bustle of Denver airport back in 2018 dropping by 95%. Photo by James Ulvog.

I can barely type fast enough to keep up with the adverse impact on the economy or freedom. Can barely keep up with the news about entire sectors of the economy collapsing. Most recent sectors I’ve learned about: airlines and the entire health care system. Since drafting this post last evening, learned about the destruction in the clean energy industry and saw some stats on the devastation in the restaurant sector.

Airlines

4/20/20 – NewsMax – Big 3 US Airlines May Cut More Than 100,000 Jobs by Fall – At the moment passenger loads are frightening – article says domestic flights are averaging 10 passengers and international flights are averaging 24 people plus crew.

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April 21, 2020, 7:32 pmJim Ulvog

A reminder of previous government pronouncements before they are pushed down the memory hole.

We can now see an extensive effort to re-write the story of the shutdown of the economy. Before that is accomplished it is necessary to put a number of factors on the table so they don’t disappear down George Orwell’s 1984 memory hole.

4/13/20 – American Institute for Economic Research – Liberation From Lockdown Now – Article discusses recent explanations and how we got to this point.

We need to remember this uncomfortable information before it is removed from the discussion.

I shall quote one paragraph from the article to keep the information alive before it is erased from the record. The early advice from the experts was:

“For a family sitting around the dinner table tonight,” said Dr. Nancy Messionnier, a spokesperson for the CDC on January 17; “this is not something that they generally need to worry about.”

Let’s not forget the next sentence:

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April 21, 2020, 6:30 amApril 21, 2020, 8:19 amJim Ulvog

Some states start to open up at the same time California may be locked up for months.

Some states are already loosening some of the shutdown restrictions.

The ‘indicators’ announced by California, Oregon, and Washington indicate it may be months before any parts of the economy are allowed to revive.

Washington state and Texas show the stark contrast in approached.

(This discussion will be posted at several of my blogs.)

4/19/20 – USA Today – US reopening: What states are relaxing social distancing restrictions and moving away from lockdowns? – Several states have already dialed back parts of the lockdown. Others have announced dates to do so. A summary of the small steps:

Now – Florida, Minnesota, Vermont
April 24 – Texas Montana
May 1 – Ohio, Idaho, North Dakota

Californians will stay in lockdown for a very long time

4/14/20 – Office of the governor – Governor Newsom Outlines Six Critical Indicators the State will Consider Before Modifying the Stay-at-Home Order and Other COVID-19 Interventions

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April 20, 2020, 1:32 pmApril 20, 2020, 1:34 pmJim Ulvog

Additional indications of economic destruction from the shutdown.

Here are a few articles in the last few days describing the economic catastrophe that is expanding daily as we watch. Estimate is out that one out of four employees in Los Angeles are out of work. Higher education as an industry is in danger.

4/14/20 – American Enterprise Institute – The International Monetary Fund’s coronavirus reality check – The IMF expects a worse downturn than the ‘08/’09 Great Recession. Global output is expected to have a US$9 trillion loss in output from what would have been expected.

For the US and Europe the loss will be equal to two years worth of economic growth.

4/17/20 – LAist – LA’s Latest Unemployment Numbers Are Staggering. An Estimated 1.3M Jobs Have Already Been Lost – Percent of LA county residents who are employed is estimated at 45%. That is down from 61% in March. The difference is 16%. Divide that by the 61% employed prior month indicates 26% of the people working a month ago are now unemployed. Data is from researchers at USC.

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April 20, 2020, 8:12 amApril 20, 2020, 9:02 amJim Ulvog

More attacks on constitutional freedoms.

This dream of so many elected politicians is flagrantly illegal. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Because a large and growing number of elected officials do not have a functional awareness of the Bill of Rights, I will recite the first and second amendments to help them out. Will then cite merely a few of the recent violations thereof.

Article I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Article II

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

..the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

4/17/20 – NJ.com – Woman charged for organizing protest of Murphy’s coronavirus stay-at-home order – (more…)

April 19, 2020, 4:38 pmApril 19, 2020, 4:44 pmJim Ulvog

What is cost of the shutdown in terms of lowered overall health and increased mortality?

Diagram of tradeoff. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Found an article that well explains the worry I have from this extended shutdown of most of the US economy.

4/17/20 – Wall Street Journal – The Hidden Toll of Untreated Illnesses / As COVID-19 overwhelms doctors and hospitals, patients with other conditions receive less care, leading to a rise in mortality.

My concern is the shutdown, loss of income, and isolation will have adverse health consequences. What will we see in terms of the level of increased mortality of people with serious illnesses which would otherwise not occur?

How many people are going to die from the shutdown?

What the tipping point at which the shutdown has more cost in terms of health than benefit? The first step in addressing that question is realizing the question even exists.

Author of the article is a practicing cardiologist.

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April 18, 2020, 11:56 amJim Ulvog

Voiding of the U.S. Constitution by executive order.

Here are highlights of a few articles I’ve read over the last few days. Not all of the articles. Not all the issues. Not all the states.

Please see if you notice a trend.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Outrun Change. If you are involved with a faith-based not-for-profit organization in any capacity, keep in mind the continued existence of the entity is protected by the first amendment to the U.S. Constitution.)

4/14/20 – Legal Insurrection – First Amendment Fail – Raleigh police: “Protesting is a non-essential activity” – Citizens protesting the shutdown of the economy – citizens mind you, not subjects – were told by the Raleigh, North Carolina police to disperse. The police obviously announced that to the assembly and also sent out a message.

The police proclaimed, on twitter that:

“Protesting is a non-essential activity.”

See the article for a screen shot.

4/10/20 – Bridge – What Michigan’s new coronavirus stay-at-home executive order means – By executive fiat, the Michigan governor issued expansive orders restricting what can be sold and outlined a restrictive stay-at-home order.

Large stores, like Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot may not sell:

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April 16, 2020, 7:49 amApril 16, 2020, 7:49 amJim Ulvog

Economic damage from shutdown – 4/15.

A few more articles on damage we are seeing from the economic shutdown.

(Cross post from my other blog, Attestation Update.)

Guess on California unemployment rate

April 2020 – Eberhardt School of Business, University of Pacific – Initial Estimates of Employment Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic – The school of business estimates an unemployment rate of 18.8% in California for the month of May 2020.

This is in contrast to 2010 rate of 12.2% and 2019 rate of 4.0%.

Likely increase in bankruptcies

4/13/20 – Washington Examiner – Pandemic likely to exceed Great Recession in number of bankruptcies – Economists from a leftist think tank and a conservative think tank both guess that the number of bankruptcies from the current shutdown of the economy will exceed the number from the Great Recession.

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April 15, 2020, 10:06 amApril 15, 2020, 10:06 amJim Ulvog

Collateral damage from shutdown.

The damage from the shutdown of the U.S. economy will be severe. Having ‘flattened the curve’, rapidly expanded hospital capacity, and kicked critical production lines into high gear, it is time open up the economy before the second order impacts cause more health damage and death from the shutdown than from the coronavirus.

4/10/20 – originally posted on Medium but was pulled; do a bit of reading and then make your own assessment why the site didn’t want the article to remain visible to the public – Eight Reasons to End the Lockdowns Now – article was written by five medical doctors and one Doctor of Nursing Practice.

The eight reasons:

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April 14, 2020, 7:52 amApril 14, 2020, 8:02 amJim Ulvog

This is what religious freedom looks like.

(Cross-posted from my other blog, Freedom is Moral. Originally posted on 3/3/13. Will repost and slightly update today.)

Yesterday one-third of the people on the planet celebrated the most holy day of their faith – Easter.

Yesterday was just another Sunday for two-thirds of the people on the planet.

As I understand it, this upcoming Thursday marks the last day of Passover, a high point of the Jewish faith (Updated for 2020). Passover celebrates the exodus from slavery as Moses led the people of Israel toward the promised land. For those reading this blog who are Jews, from the bottom of my heart I sincerely hope you have a wonderful and blessed time of celebration.

For everyone else, I sincerely hope you had a relaxing weekend, maybe got to sleep in late. I’m quite serious. I hope you had a nice, fun, refreshing weekend. (Update to 2020: Or, more precisely, I hope you got to do as much relaxing as you could while under stay-at-home orders.)

Here’s what religious freedom looks like:

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